Two Nations, Divisible by...Everything

If the world wants to see the opposite of India's current trajectory, they need only look over the border. 

As profits fall in G7 markets, hundreds of multinational companies have been linking up with Indian companies to try and capitalize off the growth potential here.  India's economy is still growing, and unlike that of neighboring China, it doesn't depend heavily on manufacturing exports to the West.

The result is what I'd call "sudden globalization" - a headlong rush into physical and social liberalization, particularly among young urban Indians.  Fortunes have been made, literally overnight.  In a moment when the American dream has been reduced to "resisting foreclosure" the Indian dream seems limitless.

There are interesting side effects to these fast adaptations.  Obviously there's the growth in consumer purchasing power, which includes a higher number of car sales and luxury real estate construction.  The growth extends to villages too.  These days, marketers are as hot to sell to rural India as they are to Mumbai.

There's some cultural mesh - visible in the increasing presence of international names in the film and music industry.  Although Hollywood movies have never made much money in India, the power of the Indian film industry is growing around the world.

It's a mistake to say that society has become more liberal, because that's a catch-all cultural generalization invented, I feel, by clueless newspaper journalists in the United States (among others).  But it is deliberately absorbing more aspects of the United States - aspects that most of the world equates with prosperity (shopping malls, for example).  At the same time, India is becoming more itself as well.

"Young Indians have more confidence today than they did in the past," says my uncle, whose background is in marketing.  And why shouldn't they?

And now for a glimpse across the border.  A country's outlook is indicated by the level of optimism among its young people.  Nearly 92% of India's massive population is under age 60.  In Pakistan, the number is 94%.  In the US, it's 82%.

And although young Indians face a world that's bright and getting brighter, the outlook for young Pakistanis is much bleaker.  Many people are immigrating out of the country.  Foreign governments seem displeased with possible subversions of multinational aid by Pakistan's extremist groups.  Pakistan's president Zardari has signed peace agreements with hardliners in order to preserve control.

And what about the quality of life outlook?  Not much better.

When my parents left India, all indicates were that it would be a "failed state."  Certainly, they didn't suspect at the time that the country would become what it has.  And maybe the same thing will happen with Pakistan.  But all the same, it's a somewhat obvious reminder that international growth is not predictable, and that the already tense situation between India and Pakistan might be aggravated if this disparity becomes more obvious.